The Clever Gambler or, how to easily get that Stardrop at the Stardew Valley Fair
On Fall 16, there's the Stardew Valley Fair. At it, you present a "grange display" of things you've produced, and can play games that reward you with Star Tokens. You can buy prizes with Star Tokens, including a one-time deal for a Stardrop, which increases your maximum energy permanently. This makes it an important boost in Fall of year 1!
Moreover, you can get it without spending any money or resources. Here's how:
- Get at least one Star Token. The easiest way to do this is to have your grange display showcased, which will reward you with at least 50 Star Tokens and won't end the fair. You can get more Star Tokens by doing better, and the wiki has a good guide on how to score better. Alternatively, maxing out the strength game will reward you with 1 free Star Token, and it costs nothing to play. Getting more tokens to start makes things significantly faster, but it's possible to do it starting with a single token.
- Play the gambling game, with the orange and green spinner. Always choose green: at minimum luck you have a 75% chance of winning on green (up to about 90% at maximum).
- Optimize your betting strategy. There are two ways to go: optimizing your winnings (4) or optimizing your luck (5).
- Optimizing your winnings is simple: you bet half of your available tokens each time. This is the solution for the Kelly criterion at minimum luck, and theoretically should produce maximum profit. This is preferable when you have few tokens, since your profit grows faster this way and the higher risk is trivial when you're not risking many tokens.
- Optimizing your luck is slightly more complicated, but minimizes your chance of net losses. Start by betting 1/15 of your total Star Tokens. If you lose, bet twice the amount you lost at, doubling up to 3 times. You have a 98.4% chance (at minimum luck) of winning within 3 tries, meaning you'll almost always profit, since doubling your bet makes you win more than you lost the previous times. In the unlikely event that you lose, you still have 8/15 of your total. If you win, continue betting 1/15 of your total, increasing it as your total grows. This can be preferable once you have more tokens: if you're at 1000 tokens and lose with the winnings-optimized strategy, that loss stings, while getting 150 tokens per bet is slower but more reliable.
- Stop betting once you hit 3400 tokens. That's the most you can spend on prizes, and tokens don't carry over from year to year. Once you've bought the Stardrop, the maximum you can spend at future fairs is 1400.
Submitted June 15, 2016 at 01:08PM by nihiltres
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